VMLM 2018 – Lies, damn lies and statistics

I had a really productive chat with a colleague today who convinced me to run London regardless of my result.  Sub 3 is probably at best a 20% chance.

Now for some stats… from Fetcheveryone.com  my 16 week pre-race mileage was 373 miles which will have included a holiday in Vietnam over new year.  My first sub 3 mileage… 373 miles…

Ave miles
Less than 10% chance…

So over 16 weeks it’s not looking good…

What about some graphs…Graphs

57% of statistics are made up…
Lies, damn lies and statistics…

I should that i’m not sure all my training uploaded correctly and can’t say I checked in detail.

  1. Rolling run miles. Similar to previous 2:55s.
  2. Run distance similar to first London but I was also cycling 50-100 miles a week training for an Ironman.
  3. Bad point – my ave run pace is about a min/mile slower.

2013 – 289 in last 90 days, 168 in last 60…

2013 stats
2013

2018 – 308 in last 90 days, 236 in last 60…

2018 Stats
2018

No half marathon race this time yet I ran 1:18 in 2013. No chance I could do that!

Recent fast and flat parkrun (furthest race this year) is 18:24.  That becomes 1:24 half and 2:56 full. This year’s parkrun time on a fast and flat compared to fall 2013 (also 2:55) is about 40 seconds slower.  If I put that new slower time (19:00) into a calculator… I get 1:27 and 3:02…

Remember calculators are for trained people!  I’m about 5Kg too heavy to run well.

Using http://www.attackpoint.org/trainingpaces.jsp to get a 10k time of just under 40:00.  I’m going to use 40:00 as my 10k time for https://feelrace.com/fr.pl?th=_Marco my favourite calculator… which says 3:09… uses a negative split profile and starts comfortably noting the heat and lack of training.  I’m going to use this and set 3:10 as my Australian training should help me withstand the 21 degree heat wave! I think I rarely ran in less than 21 degrees!

Marco
The Marco Plan!

So 3:10 it is.  Will I? won’t I?

 

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